2026 MGH Partners Barometer: The French and the world, between anxiety and strategic awareness

With less than a year to go before the 2027 presidential election, international issues have emerged as a defining feature of the public debate in France. From the war in Ukraine and Middle Eastern tensions to global rearmament, European sovereignty, strategic dependencies, cyber threats, and the US-China rivalry: foreign policy is no longer the exclusive preserve of diplomatic circles.

Against this backdrop, MGH Partners is releasing the second edition of its barometer, “The French and France’s Foreign Policy,” conducted by Toluna-Harris Interactive among a representative sample of the French population.

The study reveals a profound shift in French public opinion: France has fully entered the geopolitical realities of the 21st century. Issues of power, security, and sovereignty now structure the public’s world-view and their expectations for government action.


Public opinion shaped by strategic anxiety

The barometer’s primary finding is the scale of concern expressed by the French regarding the deteriorating international climate.

• 65% of French citizens believe there is a high risk of a global conflict involving France in the coming years.
• 51% consider that the priority of French foreign policy must be to safeguard the security of the French people against foreign powers.
• 59% believe France is ill-prepared for hybrid threats, ranging from cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns to foreign interference and the sabotage of critical infrastructure.

These results represent a clear break from the “peace dividend” logic that has shaped European public discourse since the end of the Cold War. The French people are now expressing a growing demand for protection, foresight, and power.

The spectacular downgrade of the United States

One of the most striking results of this edition is the shifting perception of the United States. While 53% of the French viewed the U.S. as an ally in 2021, that figure has plummeted to 32% in 2026, a 21-point drop in just five years. This pivot is a cornerstone of the barometer, illustrating a broader reshaping of French geopolitical perceptions in an era marked by instability and the return of power politics.

Conversely, several states are now clearly identified as potential threats:

• 66% of the French view Russia as a threat to France.
• 45% hold the same view regarding Algeria.

In the Mediterranean region, however, Morocco retains a singular standing:

72% of the French view the privileged relationship between France and Morocco in a positive light.

A growing demand for power… at the european scale

In response to these developments, the French are largely in favor of strengthening both French and European strategic capabilities.

• 59% wish to increase defense spending to enhance France’s global influence.
• 75% support a common European defense, including a collective strategy and a unified army.

The study thus demonstrates that the demand for power expressed by the French is not solely national but is also rooted in a logic of European strategic autonomy.

Enduring Commitment to International Law

Despite the rise in security and strategic concerns, the French public opinion remain committed to international regulatory mechanisms.

• 47% believe that respect for international law, treaties, and diplomatic channels remains the most effective way to prevent global conflicts.

This result illustrates a public opinion that is simultaneously more realistic about international power dynamics and remains committed to a rules-based international order.

[Click here to access the full Barometer (Link)]

Methodology Survey conducted online by Toluna-Harris Interactive for MGH Partners from May 5 to 11, 2026, among a representative sample of 1,240 people aged 18 and over. The quota method was applied to gender, age, socio-professional category, region, and size of urban area.

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